Monday, July 28, 2014

Is Jeremy Lin a poor defender?

Jeremy Lin is often referred to as a poor defender. His reputation is that he has poor lateral quickness and cannot keep his man from driving past him. Is this really true? Let's look at some defensive stats to see if they support this reputation.

Thanks to SportVU player tracking technology, NBA.com has published a stat called "Opponent FG% at the Rim", which is defined as "the defender being within five feet of the basket and within five feet of the offensive player." If we filter by guards who have played at least half the season and 24 minutes per game, we will see that Lin allows the 7th lowest FG% at the rim with 47.7% out of 80+ guards. Compare that to Beverley (19th at 52.2%), and Harden (30th at 53.8%). (By the way, I'm pretty sure Harden's % should be worse, but if he is more than 5 ft away from the offensive player, it doesn't count towards this stat.)

Unfortunately, that is the only individual defensive stat that is publicly available (as far as I know). Otherwise, we could look at Lin's individual defensive stats for other distances as well. However, NBA.com does publish some other defensive stats called "Player Opp Shots". Based on the raw FGA totals (over 5000 FGA for some players), I have concluded that the definition is the opposing team's FG% when the player is on the court. So this is somewhat of a team stat rather than purely an individual stat. But it is still useful to compare the relative rankings for players on the same team.

If we look at the Player Opp Shots, again filtered for guards who played at least half the season and 24 mpg, we see that Lin ranks 12th best with 48.0% eFG allowed out of 80+ guards. Reminder that you can't really compare players from different teams because it's a combination of team and individual stat. But let's compare to other Houston guards: Beverley and Harden rank 22nd and 23rd with 48.8% eFG allowed.

Conclusion:

Lin allows the 7th lowest FG% at the rim with 47.7% among NBA guards. Beverley is 19th.

Lin ranks as the 12th best guard in with 48.0% eFG allowed to the opposing team. Beverley is 22nd.

Stats aren't perfect indicators, but if Lin were a poor defender, he would not be the 7th best rim defending guard. If you watch the tape, Lin may not be able to keep the small, quick guards in front of him at all times, but if they do drive past him, Lin uses his straightaway speed to stay with them and deny them an easy layup.

Lin's defensive stats certainly benefited from having Howard and Asik behind him, but so did Beverley. Yet Lin's FG% allowed are better than Beverley's.

My conclusion is that while Lin may not be a flashy, lockdown defender, he is an above average defender, especially in the context of team defense. After all, basketball is played 5 on 5, not 1 on 1.